First published July 6, 2012.
Same could be said about the big picture regarding the current state of moving pictures. Almost everybody is looking for a silver lining somewhere within the storm clouds of 2012. Oh sure, there have been some highs and some lows. Mostly, the mainstream Hollywood market is being artificially supported by the international box office, which is now running at a 2 to 1 (or even 3 to 1) ratio to US ticket sales. Even so, this is often not enough for many of the big-budget movies to break even, but it at least gives the studios’ accountants a chance to pretend that the system is half sane.
Half sane is about as good as it gets. Currently, Hollywood is working hard at getting Chinese money into American movies so they can launch a major move into the Russian market. This is a complicated maneuver that involves a wide variety of highly sophisticated transactions. Does it make sense? Not really. Will it work? Heck no. Are they all crazy or simply stupid? Gee, do we have to pick just one?
Sure, the modern film market is extremely international. But most folks in Hollywood have no clue about this international thing except when they are looking to do a remake. Granted, Steven Spielberg has made a move toward mid-Atlantic status with The Adventures of Tintin and War Horse, and Martin Scorsese’s production of Hugo made a strong pitch to the European market, but mostly the overseas box office is currently more American in its tastes than the American market (hence the bizarre overseas success of Battleship).
But the Hollywood ability to dominate in these markets is based largely on a long-standing suppression of competition in the foreign marketplace. Heck, that has always been one of the major functions of the MPAA. During the height of the Cold War, Hollywood’s domination of the foreign market was practically considered a patriotic duty. We were importing our moral and cultural values overseas. Of course, it was also an American thing to make some money while you were at it. Kind of win-win in the good old days.
Now, it’s just about the money. Basically, it’s not even about Art or Entertainment or even audience taste. It’s all about lots of money thrown out there in the pursuit of lots of money wherever you can find it. The average major film is now costing around $150 to $250 million (plus publicity cost equal to production cost, which doubles the expense). The average overall box office take is around $300 to $500 million. Basically, the only real profit for most of these films is from TV and DVD release. But both of these markets are dwindling. But that’s OK. Most of the folks in Hollywood no longer have a clue about making a profit. They just like spending money. Wild spending has always been a potent aphrodisiac. Of course, they are also hoping that the Chinese will simply empty their bank accounts and then go away. This is one of the reasons why we cannot decide between crazy or stupid.
As always, a wistful hope is found within the indie cinema. In theory, the low-budget indie world still has a business model that makes sense. In principle, most indie movies are focused on being movies rather than visual effect extravaganzas. In reality, most indie films are pretty much screwed by the system before the cameras even roll.
Take the list of the most successful indie films of 2012 provided this week by IndieWire. For a brief moment, this list of 27 indie movies that have made over a million dollars this year could give a person a sigh of relief. It almost sounds as if business is good until you realize that most of these movies made just over a million, and a million these days ain’t much. Especially in a system that is now exclusively driven by the short-term effect of the opening weekend.
Indie movies require a slow approach to release, normally starting on two to four screens and moving to several hundred screens over a period of three to four weeks. If successful, an indie film will eventually be playing on anywhere from 400 to 500 screens in the US. Most small indie movies will only reach about 150 to 200 screens. Many will never get into the two digit range.
Since the average major Hollywood movie will open on 3,000 to 4,000 screens right at the start, they have a numerical advantage. This is half OK because these bloated elephants need as much space as they can grab. Likewise, they need long opening weekends. That’s why The Amazing Spider-Man has opened on July 3rd, because this sucker needs a six-day weekend to pump up the tickets. If only the same kind of thinking went into planning the work week for the rest of us.
But it means that everyone else is squeezed out in the pursuit of the big event presentation. In turn, the so-called big events are no longer particularly big or much of an event. The current list of blockbusters reads like a copy of TV Guide during rerun season. Heck, the biggest reason for going to the theater this summer is for the air conditioning, and most theaters are having to conserve on power, which means that it isn’t all that cool inside.
Instead, it may be a good summer to just go to the pool and lazily float in the tepid chill of chlorinated water. To dream. To reflect. Which is it, crazy or stupid? Do a few laps and then decide.
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