Future Tense

 First published February 12, 2013

For some, the glass is half empty. For others, it is half full.

But for a few of of us, the real question is: What glass?  I see only water.

Which partly sums up my own attitude when assessing the possible future developments involving the film industry and the digital revolution. Three recent blog articles do an excellent job of summarizing several key issues that have formed over the last several years.

In a post titled The Independent’s Guide to Film Exhibition and Delivery 2013, Jeffrey Winter of The Film Collaborative does a superb job of describing the rapidly emerging digital system for commercial movie distribution. He is especially good at outlining how a new distribution system that could (in theory) be a plus for indie filmmakers is actually being designed for increased control (as in near total control) by the major media companies.

The digital distribution system that will be standard by the end of this year is a top-down structure that excludes virtually everybody (including the theaters) from any real and active say into the system. The major companies do not particularly like the digital form. In many respects, they don’t really understand it and they are actually half afraid of it. But by gum, they are going to own it by hook or by crook. The glass is half empty and they want the glass.

Which brings us to the other must-read blog post of the month. Knowing the Film Market – Part I of HBS Study on Blue Potato by Kathryn Ogletree is part of a highly significant research project by four graduates from the Harvard Business School on new models for indie films and their relationship with major media companies. They are creating business models that would allow indie filmmakers to enter this emerging structure sideways (so to speak).

The Blue Potato team (it’s the name of their film project) is doing a great job of formalizing a complex business model that has previously occurred somewhat haphazardly in indie filmmaking. They are not looking to challenge the top-down management system. Instead, they are attempting to slip into it either through the backdoor or the kitchen window. Under the current distribution system, this project provides a fantastic set of guidelines and should be read by all indie filmmakers.

So yes, the glass is half full and though you may never own the glass, you might be able to lease it.

Of course, that is under the current distribution system. Over at GQ.com, there is the article And the Award for the Next HBO Goes to…. a long interview with Reed Hastings, the co-founder and CEO of Netflix.

Before I say more, I should confess that my track record with Hastings is, at best, only fifty-fifty. Some years ago, I warned that the move by Netflix from mail order DVDs to online content would be potentially disastrous. I was wrong. I also warned that such a move could be prone to other major missteps that could implode into a disastrous piece of corporate over reach. The failure of Qwikster did wonders for my damaged sense of self-esteem.

But the more I read interviews with Hastings, the more I kind of like this guy. He is all over the place like a rapidly rising tide. Yep, he is all about water. Who needs a stinkin’ glass?

Before reading this interview, you might want to keep in mind a couple of key historic points about cinema. Film was a unique artistic and technological byproduct of the Industrial Revolution. Notice I used the past tense. Even the development of the movie audience was a result of unique sociological features caused by  industrialization. Again, I am using the past tense.

With the Digital Revolution, everything has changed. We still talk about film and the film industry much the same way that we still refer to the rising of the sun. But the sun doesn’t rise (it has something to do with the rotation of the earth) and film is now an historical relic. Virtually every element of the media industry is evolving into something extremely different from anything we have previously known. A person like Reed Hastings knows enough to know that basically we know nothing. What ever the future will be, it will be unlike anything we are currently envisioning.

The interview with Hastings kept reminding me of an odd conversation I had back in the late 1980s. I was working with a guest curator on a museum presentation about the current state (back then) of computer generated imagery. The guy I was dealing with would later become a very prominent figure in CGI and special effects in an impressive range of major movies, and I found myself getting a pretty good introduction to the whole field. But as we were talking, a seemingly bizarre – perhaps even evil – idea occurred to me.

Based upon everything he was saying about the emerging digital model, why don’t we just cut to the chase and simply connect cable straight into the audience’s cerebral cortex for direct distribution of the material?

He actually thought I had a good idea. I was joking, but he was serious.

I learned two things that night. The first is that the possibilities are endless. The second, I really got to watch my mouth. The last thing I need is to have some one wrapping tin foil around my head so we all can get better reception.